The sixth round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) and the fifth round of China-US High-Level Consultation on People-to-People Exchange (CPE) have just ended in Beijing. These latest rounds of talks have furthered their existing cooperation and promised to promote more collaboration between these two countries in the economic, security and cultural areas.
What will be the eventual outcome of such meetings? Constructive and stable relationship between Beijing and Washington and a smooth transition of regional and world order of politics and economics.
Given globalization, international relations have undergone a sea change. The traditional ideological competition between nations, based on various version of Unitarianism and subsequently followed by all sorts of adverse competition and even conflicts, is giving space to cooperation among various elements of productivity, on a global scale.
Rather than converting America to be led by proletarians, China has now promised to respect American way of life, per the latter’s own choice based on its historical and cultural tradition. Similarly, America has been massively working with China on investment, outsourcing, and two-way trade etc., much expanding common ground of their partnership. Rather than “containing communism” as delivered each time by President Obama in his two presidential inaugural speeches, Secretary of State John Kerry has repeatedly assured China, over late last week in Beijing that the US “doesn’t intend to contain China”. The US has viewed China with a more objective perspective that China’s own style of modernization has brought more public goods to its own people and beyond that the US can and has to benefit.
Obviously China is catching up rather rapidly. From 2000-2013, China’s GDP has narrowed its difference with the US from 1/9 to over 1/2. Meantime China’s announced defense spending has narrowed its difference with America from 1/18 to over 1/4. These don’t change the status quo fundamentally as America still leads in an aggregated term, let alone in per capita sense. However, what about if China would catch up with the US, especially as America spreads thin worldwide? The National Intelligence Council predicted in 2012 in its report, 2030 Global Trend, that the US would no longer be the sole superpower by 2030, and the World Bank predicted recently that by this year China’s economic scale would surpass that of the US, in the measurement of purchasing power parity (PPP). Though PPP standard and calculation could be controversial, China may still be able to make it the biggest economy of the world before 2030, even with its official exchange rate.
America is pondering what China’s discourse of “great restoration” would mean. While the US has claimed to welcome China’s rise, it would not welcome itself to decline to be a co-superpower or less as an outcome of China’s rise. By seeing China to be the next largest economy in the world, it may not bode well for the order of Pax Americana. Therefore, Washington is seriously concerned about the economic and strategic implication of China’s rise, even if it is peaceful.
On the one hand, China has always aspired to be rich and strong. On the other, at the time of globalization, it is possible to peacefully make it, if both the US and China would follow established international laws and norms and partner genuinely to meet with future global challenges. Though the US has not relinquished its religious desire to convert China, it will be realistic not to think about a military means to attain it. Luckily China has transformed its ideology and no longer assumed a burden to transform other countries in whatever means, unless mandated by the United Nations. This has much lowered a chance that Beijing and Washington would end with an adversarial competition for the sake of ideology.
Even better, China and the US have developed a mode of major-country engagement, by launching and sustaining the S&ED and CPE. This has much transformed the type of US-USSR détente through strategic arms limitation or reduction talks. At strategic arms level, China and the US are not comparable and China doesn’t intend to seek equality despite its economic rise. However, China has to develop its economy as even if it is on a par with America on economic output, it is still 1/4 of that the US on per capita level. Therefore, it is not possible that China will not seek economic growth merely to avoid economic competition with America.
Both Beijing and Washington have to understand the rationale of China’s development – not to intend to challenge the US though China’s success would empower itself for an even intended consequence. Given this, America has to welcome China’s peaceful rise as such rise will be unstoppable, and assure China to honor its promise. Meanwhile, China needs to assure that it will only rise peacefully, as a non-peaceful rise is rather unlikely to achieve, or with a cost too high to absorb.
Honestly speaking, without S&ED and CPE China and the US will still be able to manage their vast amount of cooperation, per the need of their people and nations. However, with these platforms, they are able to employ such high level annual institutional means, next only to summits, for frank and substantial exchange and deliberation, more efficiently wrapping up hundreds of deals at one time and each time. These talks may not resolve sensitive and even emotional issues such as cyber-security and maritime security disputes. But without such interactions China-US tie would only become worsened. Therefore, the three tracks of S&ED plus CPR have been a great invention to advance China-US bond while stabilizing the part of their fragile tie. This is the best realistically available approach to assure a smooth transition of the regional and world order in which all stakeholders can protect their legitimate interests.
Dr. Shen Dingli is a professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Affairs, Fudan University. He is also the founder and director of China’s first non-government-based Program on Arms Control and Regional Security at Fudan University.
Shen Dingli, Associate Dean, Fudan Unversity via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1sRwbik
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