A Watcher with Mixed Feelings: Comments on 2016 China Military Power Report

To predict, prevent and manage crises, especially those triggered by third-party factors, should become the top priority in China-U.S. strategic consultations, in order to establish higher levels and broader scopes of risk-prevention and control mechanisms.

Zhao Weibin, Researcher, PLA Academy of Military Science via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XKrgRo

Why the U.S. Should Save More and Consume Less, and China, Visa Versa

Republicans and Democrats alike have taken aim at both China and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, holding them up as the scourge of beleaguered American workers. America needs to save more and consume less, while China needs to save less and consume more. To succeed, both countries will have to overcome entrenched mindsets.

Stephen Roach, Faculty Member, Yale University via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XKqMKV

Why Americans Shouldn’t Be Concerned with a China Trade Deficit

The US-China Business Council writes that instead of building protectionist walls, the U.S. should boost exports to China—the fastest growing market in the world—by pursuing policies that reduce the trade and market access barriers that China uses to keep out American manufactured goods, services, and agriculture products. The U.S. should also take steps to boost worker education and training, and improve competitiveness to ensure that America continues to have a strong economy.

US-China Business Council via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1UpSfPl

Limits of law in the South China Sea

Although a rules-based and law-based approach in the international arena is an admirable aspiration, law will not solve the dangerous problems in the South China Sea. More specifically, the upcoming ruling in the case brought by the Philippines against China before an arbitration tribunal under the U.N. Convention the Law of the Seas will not solve the problems or even make a major headway in resolving them. An examination of the issues before the tribunal and its most likely decisions demonstrate that the tribunal and law can make only a very limited contribution to resolving the South China Sea crisis. Law will not save us from continuing to focus predominantly on negotiations and power politics.

Paul Gewirtz Potter Stewart Professor of Constitutional Law and Director, the Paul Tsai China Center via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1ZbLDpp

Is the Iran Nuclear Issue Resolved?

China regards both the U.S. and Iran as important partners, which is why Beijing played a major role in putting together the Iran nuclear deal. Implementing that plan will face challenges in both the U.S. and Iran, and China’s commitment to building a new type of major-country relationship with the US means it will continue to assist both countries to keep the deal moving forward.

Jin Liangxiang, Research Fellow, Shanghai Institute of Int'l Studies via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/25vYZAr

Tsai’s Inauguration Marks Change of Status Quo

All indications are that Taiwan’s new leader and the governing apparatus around her are half-hearted about the 1992 Consensus and strengthening cross-Strait relations. Her inaugural speech reflects not American-style candor but Japanese-style victimhood, and does not offer a viable way forward. A period of uncertainty and unpleasant surprises in cross-Strait relations lies ahead.

Zhu Songling, Professor, Beijing Union University via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1sYhZtJ

The Power of the Wind: Pollution and Politics in Today’s China

China’s long history with its concentric cycles of buildup and decay tends to support the notion that the general political outlook is knowable, while the specifics remain indeterminate due to complexity. Nothing short of society-wide endeavor can stem the tide of negative trends and polluting influences. Change, for the better, and for the worse, sets in slowly and incrementally, often beyond immediate perception.

Philip Cunningham, visiting research fellow, Cornell University, New York via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1TUiwH5

America’s Profound Strategic Misperception of China

China has no ambition to dominate Asia or the world, and Washington must resist misconstruing China’s development strategies and policies. It is imperative that the two countries dispel misgivings and strengthen communication, deepen understanding and mutual trust, in order to build a new type of major-country relations featuring non-confrontation, non-conflict and win-win cooperation.

Yin Chengde Research Fellow, China Foundation for Int'l Studies via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/22uSDj2

Location. Location. Location. Economic Growth Depends on Where You Are

In 2015, China’s growth was again at the center of international headlines, but the focus was instead on the slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy. Much has been made of China’s adjustment to the “new normal,” even as US-China Business Council (USCBC) companies reported that China remains a priority market that delivers more growth than most other markets around the globe. But China is not a monolith, and local-level growth patterns suggest the emergence of the new model.

Mandy Peng via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/25v9vb6

A Watcher with Mixed Feelings: Comments on 2016 China Military Power Report

To predict, prevent and manage crises, especially those triggered by third-party factors, should become the top priority in China-U.S. strategic consultations, in order to establish higher levels and broader scopes of risk-prevention and control mechanisms.

Zhao Weibin, Researcher, PLA Academy of Military Science via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XKrgRo

China’s Policies Make More True Friends

The foreign policy of a sovereign country is closely associated with making friends, but foreign policy is not the only factor. With the ongoing implementation of its policy of reform and opening-up, China continues to make more new friends with developing and developed countries. Now, China has established economic, trade and cultural relations with almost all countries and regions in the world – all without benefit of a military-alliance system.

Wu Zurong, Research Fellow, China Foundation for Int'l Studies via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XKr6ct

A Scar, or Something to Inherit?

President Xi’s past remarks that defined the “cultural revolution” as “ten years of havoc should have made some less aggressive in singing the praises of those years. The “cultural revolution” was a historic setback that is no cure for the troubles of today’s China. That populist fantasy would be an insane act of backpedaling.

Qin Xiaoying, Research Scholar, China Foundation For Int'l and Strategic Studies via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XKrM1y

Duterte Presidency: A Game Changer in Philippine-China Relations?

Duterte’s strong performance at the polls seems to demonstrate Filipinos’ approval of a new approach to the South China Sea problem by holding bilateral talks with China and the U.S. But if these talks fail to benefit of the Filipino people, particularly on Filipino fishermen who are greatly affected by sea disputes, Duterte may use the arbitration decision as a second option.

Rommel C. Banlaoi Director, Center for Intelligence and National Security Studies via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XKrp79

Why the U.S. Should Save More and Consume Less, and China, Visa Versa

Republicans and Democrats alike have taken aim at both China and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, holding them up as the scourge of beleaguered American workers. America needs to save more and consume less, while China needs to save less and consume more. To succeed, both countries will have to overcome entrenched mindsets.

Stephen Roach, Faculty Member, Yale University via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XKqMKV

Why Americans Shouldn’t Be Concerned with a China Trade Deficit

The US-China Business Council writes that instead of building protectionist walls, the U.S. should boost exports to China—the fastest growing market in the world—by pursuing policies that reduce the trade and market access barriers that China uses to keep out American manufactured goods, services, and agriculture products. The U.S. should also take steps to boost worker education and training, and improve competitiveness to ensure that America continues to have a strong economy.

US-China Business Council via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1UpSfPl

Can China Lead and transform G20?

China is eager to keep its economy going strong under “the new normal” to develop an innovative, coordinated, green, open and sharing economy, and Beijing is willing to take the lead in better coordination of macro-economic policies among major economies. The world economy clearly needs structural adjustment, which has to be a collective endeavor for economies both developed and developing, which are intertwined and interdependent in the age of globalization.

He Yafei former Vice Minister, State Council Office of Overseas Chinese Affairs via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1TTH4Qj

Three Consecutive Olympiads of Peace in Asia: A Deus Ex Machina for China-Japan-Korea Relations

In April 2016 the ceremony for the initiation of the Olympic Flame’s world marathon took place in Ancient Olympia Greece opening the final countdown for Rio Olympics. The authors from Tsinghua University, Seoul National University, the University of Tokyo and Harvard University, argue that the three consecutive Olympiads in Asia (2018, 2020, 2022) offer an unprecedented “Deus Ex Machina” to China, Japan and South Korea to engage in a concerted massive public diplomacy campaign that will tame rising nationalism and replace national bravado with athletic excellence and the Olympic Ideal.

Wang Xiaochao, Zhang Lihua, Noburu Notomi, Cho Dong Sung, Patrick Mendis, Zhao Kejin, Vasilis Trigkas via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/25v3DyQ

Managing Strategic Competition Between China and the US

China is unswervingly committed to its path of peaceful development, and believes China and the US can cultivate a state-to-state relationship featuring long-term peaceful co-existence against a new historical background. Seeking common ground while shelving differences is an effective, important principle that has served both countries well and would continue to do so in the future.

Cui Liru, Former President, CICIR via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/25v3Py6

Vietnam Arms Sales and Regional Balancing

The U.S. decision to remove all restrictions on arms sales to Vietnam does not aim to militarize the South China Sea dispute or contain China. Rather, the decision was but the latest move among the great powers to pursue their interests in Southeast Asia, which for the United States focus on discouraging China or anyone else from using military power to pursue a coercive solution to territorial conflicts.

Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/20Ip2kE

The New York Times Is Wrong About the South China Sea

In a recent editorial, the New York Times accuses China of “playing chicken” in the South China Sea, which as Benjamin Reynolds argues, dramatically inflates the threat that China poses to the region and the United States. The critique is not militarism, threatening behavior, or the revision of international norms as such. Rather, the narrative outlined by the Times is the standard hawkish U.S. narrative about China and the South China Sea, which have preceded invasions in Vietnam, Iraq, and bombing in Libya, too.

Ben Reynolds Writer and Foreign Policy Analyst in New York via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1Z4zhPC

Whose “International Law” Are We Talking About?

With the US picking and choosing what parts of customary international law it embraces, the FON operations are clearly exercises of hegemonic power projection so as to establish a US-dominated maritime legal order beyond a world ocean legal order guaranteed under UNCLOS. As for the FON operations conducted in the South China Sea, they are no more than a tool to carry out the US “Pivot to Asia” strategy.

Liu Haiyang Research Fellow, Nanjing University via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1WYrB4q

Why the Debate on the “Cultural Revolution” Today

Official media’s belated revisiting of that dark period suggests a policy of putting the memory behind us, but ignoring history opens the door to repeating it.

Kai Yan Beijing-based scholar via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XyRki3

Why U.S. Retirees and Households Should Welcome Chinese Investment, Not a 45 Percent Tarrif

Donald Trump’s supposed 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports would punish American consumers, violate international trade rules, and ignite a trade war. However, given when a Chinese company pays top dollar to acquire a public U.S. company, shareholders generally receive cash in excess of the stock price, which goes right to the pockets of U.S. households and retirees.

Doug Bandow, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XyR3Me

Staying the Course: Maintaining Momentum in U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-China relations are too important for the people of the two nations and for the world. At this point, protecting U.S.-China relations must be the first priority. It is time for the two countries to rethink and re-evaluate, with urgency, the issues involved.

C.H.Tung Chairman, China-United States Exchange Foundation via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1qEh9jP

Making the Right Choices: China-U.S. Relations at a Critical Point

China's top diplomat in Washington argues that both Beijing and Washington need a new vision for a bilateral relationship based on new realities in the world and form a new partnership to work together to deal with global challenges of today. In doing so, he claims, both can better accomplish domestic goals and fulfill international roles.

Cui Tiankai, Chinese Ambassador to the United States via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1TAVTZJ

Is the U.S. Treasury Measuring Trade Imbalance With China the Right Way?

The U.S. Treasury department has released a report on currency policy and trade between its major partners, selectively picking rules from the IMF’s list of currency manipulations actions to its advantage. To fix the porous global currency system, the Obama Administration should sit down with China and re-write multilateral rules and create a diverse supply of safe globally traded assets.

Sourabh Gupta Resident Senior Fellow, Institute for China-America Studies via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/25jCNNu

Hiroshima: One History, Two Memories

One week before his Hiroshima visit, U.S. President Barack Obama said in his interview with NHK that his purpose is not to revisit the past, but to affirm the need of peace and a world without nuclear weapons. Whereas the declared message of his Hiroshima visit is denuclearization, the unspoken connotations could be more meaningful.

Mandy Peng via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1qGH62b

The U.S. Electorate and China

Whether or not Donald Trump’s outlandish personality will carry him all the way to the White House, China-US relations and respect for China’s rise are so essential that any incoming president will act to keep the relationship stable.

Shen Dingli Associate Dean, Fudan University via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XQhNYQ

Obama’s Hiroshima Visit Sends Wrong Messages

As the U.S. Indulgence towards Japan grows, an emboldened Japan will act more aggressively. A successful U.S. Asia strategy hinges upon a balanced policy toward both China and Japan. However, the scale is well tilted towards Japan now. If Obama wants to make a stable U.S.-China relations one of his foreign policy legacies, he should think over before leap.

Zhang Zhixin, Chief of American Political Studies, CICIR via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1TTMOW5

U.S.-China relations are too important for the people of the two nations and for the world. At this point, protecting U.S.-China relations must be the first priority. It is time for the two countries to rethink and re-evaluate, with urgency, the issues involved.

Mandy Peng via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1qEh9jP

Who Will Be to Blame for the Next Collision Incident in the South China Sea?

The recent U.S. reconnaissance activities in South China Sea raises the question if another collision is looming in the air. After examining the existing international conventions and laws regarding airspace and maritime encounters, the author argues that the key to preventing another collision is for the U.S. to stop close-in reconnaissance operations near China’s waters.

Liu Haiyang Research Fellow, Nanjing University via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XrehUj

Philippines’ New Leader Has a Chance to Adjust South China Sea Policies

China believes that the South China Sea issue has badly influenced the bilateral relationship, but despite Rodrigo Duterte’s inexperience in foreign affairs, Beijing looks forward to practical approaches of the new administration of the Philippines to appropriately address the problems and disputes. The country should also keep in mind the importance of the regional peace and stability, and reshape its perception of China.

Su Xiaohui, Deputy Director of Int'l & Strategic Studies, CIIS via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1NGoTx2

Why President Duterte Rejects a Strategy of Tension Promoted by U.S.

Despite western press fearing the next Philippine president as a “strongman,” President Duterte won the majority of votes from an election with a record 82 percent turnout. For the first time, Philippines is poised to have its first president who is a self-declared socialist, and who wants to hedge bets between U.S. security assurance and Chinese economic cooperation.

Dan Steinbock, Research Director, India China and America Institute via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/25db1SN

On Tip-toe in the South China Sea

Mandy Peng via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1rVGoj0

On Tip-toe in the South China Sea

Whereas aircraft carriers have long provided the U.S. naval primacy as floating islands, China is creating its own artificial islands, complete with deep channels, harbors, berthing areas and airfields, all manned by thousands of troops, to counter that primacy. The consequences of a military clash could easily be disastrous and must be avoided. The politics of keeping the overall U.S.-China relationship on track is a particular challenge in the U.S. during a presidential election year, when candidates are posturing to an unexpectedly populist electorate.

Mandy Peng via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1WDCect

On Tip-toe in the South China Sea

Whereas aircraft carriers have long provided the U.S. naval primacy as floating islands, China is creating its own artificial islands, complete with deep channels, harbors, berthing areas and airfields, all manned by thousands of troops, to counter that primacy. The consequences of a military clash could easily be disastrous and must be avoided. The politics of keeping the overall U.S.-China relationship on track is a particular challenge in the U.S. during a presidential election year, when candidates are posturing to an unexpectedly populist electorate.

Joan Johnson-Freese, Professor, US Naval War College via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/251jXqG

“Selective Engagement” Offers Best Hope for U.S. Foreign Policy

The following is the opening remarks by James A. Baker, III at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on May 12, 2016.

CUSEF China-United States Exchange Foundation via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1Tn42h6

Why China Might Prefer a Hawk to a Loose Cannon

Chinese media is already weighing in on the implications of a race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Clinton presents to Chinese politicians an undeniably superior alternative to Trump’s loose cannon: a known entity with predictable behavior who will maintain the current tenor of bilateral diplomatic dialogue.

Colin Moreshead, Freelancer in Tokyo via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1XlMepf

Anticipating the World’s Third-Largest Trade Axis

Through new policies like the lowest customs threshold, intermediary responsibility, privacy, intellectual property rights, consumer protection, electronic signature and settlement of issues, the evolving global trade framework can promote interconnection and interflow in information, trade and industry so as to bring a new boom via the new round of trade globalization talks.

Zhang Monan, Researcher, China Int'l Economic Exchanges Center via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1NxNsMm

China’s Cultural Revolution Turns 50

Tom Watkins reviews the still contested—but often un-discussed—narratives surrounding the causes and reasons for the Cultural Revolution, which began fifty years ago. He mostly disagrees with the assertion that the current regime of Xi Jinping is similar to the conditions that brought about the fervor of revolution not seen since the time of Chairman Mao.

Tom Watkins, Advisor, University of Michigan Confucius Institute via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1Tl0X1b

Time to Stop Using Arbitration for Selfish Gains

The arbitration tribunal has put its own authority in question by redefining the case against China put before it by the Philippines. All nations should be concerned about what would become of China’s maritime entitlements in the South China Sea if we let UNCLOS serve as the sole exclusionary source of such entitlements.

Hai Boping Guest Researcher, School of International Studies, Peking University via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1OzoFYt

Does the Philippines’ New President Care More About Accommodation than South China Sea Arbitration?

While Duterte seriously values the Philippines’ long-standing security alliance with the U.S., he seems to be more enthusiastic in repairing the Philippines’ damaged political ties with China. Rommel Banlaoi warns, however, that excessive accommodation of China could potentially undermine the Philippines’ long standing alliance with the United States.

Rommel C. Banlaoi Director, Center for Intelligence and National Security Studies via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/27qAAOJ

Some Expectations for 2016 in U.S.-China Relations

Much can be accomplished before President Obama leaves office in developing the new model of major-power relations along the lines China’s President Xi has proposed, and there is good reason to expect such accomplishments.

Yu Sui, Professor, China Center for Contemporary World Studies via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/23UmznY

Political Considerations Shape U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations in South China Sea

Differences over freedom of navigation mainly originate from different interpretations of UNCLOS. As China extends the reaches of its maritime power, the operational capability at sea of the PLA Navy may be constrained due to the question of EEZ jurisdiction, which will invite cooperation with the US at appropriate times. The two countries would benefit from developing a common language on freedom of navigation.

Hai Boping Guest Researcher, School of International Studies, Peking University via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1Or4TsP

The Self-styled “Balancer” that Upsets the Regional Balance

The US strategy ignores the legitimate desire of most countries for peace and development and upsets the natural balance in the region. If Washington insists on playing the role of “regional balancer” under a misguided Cold War mentality, it would achieve nothing but create imbalance and walk right into the “hegemon’s trap” despite repeated historical lessons.

Wu Sike, Member on Foreign Affairs Committee, CPPCC via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1T6ItT7

After the Paris Climate Agreement, What’s Next?

China and the U.S. are actively promoting the changes set out in the Paris Climate Agreement signed at the end of April. China’s already shut down enough coal mines to cut CO2 emissions equal to the entirety of Great Britain’s annual emissions, but what else is needed to keep under two degrees Celsius?

Walker Rowe, Publisher, Southern Pacific Review via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1rZayBE

Downward Pressure in US Economy and Implications for China

Increasing US technology and equipment exports to China would not only helping Chinese industrial upgrading, but also help US production in a time of sliding Chinese demand for US goods. Finalizing a bilateral investment treaty and closer collaboration between both governments and business to clinch more PPP projects in US infrastructure investments also would benefit both countries.

He Weiwen Co-director, China-US/EU Study Center, China Association of International Trade via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/21Z7Poo

Staying the Course: Maintaining Momentum in US-China Relations

The following is the text of the prepared speech by C.H. Tung, chairman of the China-United States Exchange Foundation, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. on May 11,2016. Good Evening, Ladies and Gentlemen, The topic of my talk today is “Staying the Course: Maintaining Momentum in […]

C.H.Tung Chairman, China-United States Exchange Foundation via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1T6pxUH

Are China’s Dams Causing Droughts in Southeast Asia?

Beijing has highlighted its water hegemony over downstream countries by releasing some dammed water for drought-hit nations in the lower Mekong River basin. Brahma Chellaney argues that this unilateralist approach underscores the imperative for institutionalized water cooperation in Asia, based on a balance between rights and obligations.

Brahma Chellaney, Professor, Center for Policy Research via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1OgxS86

How Special is the US-UK Relationship?

China is but one factor in the two Anglophone countries’ diverging outlooks: President Obama has warned that China should not undermine international order and that the rules of global economy cannot be written by China, the UK has sensed that the evolution and reform in international system bring about opportunity for Britain, and is ready to seize upon it.

Sun Chenghao Assistant Research Fellow, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations via CHINA US Focus http://ift.tt/1YkYRQ0